Getting to the White House, not to mention getting by Barack Obama has proven to be more than climbing a ‘hill of beans’. Three weeks into the elections –March 4, Barack continues to warm up crowds (over-filled stadiums) and make headlines, in the interim Hillary develops a strategy to win Texas, which renders 288 delegates. The same is true for Ohio and Wisconsin. Winning these could help in getting pass her rival. But does she have a chance getting it right this late in the game? I would not bet on this, but Hillary is also known be a good strategizer. So how does one explain this losing streak?
With the Obama’s ‘political virus’ spreading like wild fire, the numbers begin to paint another picture; and not a very sharp one for Clinton. As Democratic strategist, Jenny Bachus puts it “Obama is moving and gathering a bigger coalition, and Hillary’s coalition is diminishing.” Therefore, was it a mistake for Senator Clinton to have taken the smaller states so lightly? The idea was “she won in the states that matters most.” Bigger is better….uh? But as she pushes to capture needed delegates in the remaining primaries could we see her firewall burn? Ohio and Texas highly favor Clinton with working class white voters and a large Hispanic population.
On the wave , however, of Obama’s momentum could there be a shift in level of support? Absolutely! Clinton is playing high stakes (not unlike Giuliani’s strategy in Florida) as she climbs out of a financial hole that forced her to make a $5 million personal loan to the campaign. Pulling off a win will be extra-ordinary. Why? American Research Group shows that the race in Texas now tightens. Hillary now holds 42% to Obama’s 48%. Although she leads among blue-dog Democrats, 47 to 42% and among Hispanics 44 to 42 percent.
This race is shaping up be a ‘blowout’. Will be surprising to see if after a stream of losses, a decline in the national polls and staff resignations, Clinton can pull this off. But on the tracks is a ‘thorough-bred’ and ‘filly’, and this is a political “Derby” of no mean order. The numbers look like a Barack possibility, but a week is a year in politics. So I suggest we hold off on picking Bibles for anyone’s swearing in. It is still too close to call. So the real rumble-tumble begins on the home – stretch, it will be bruising. But nothing short of TKO (as in boxing) will clarify who the real front-runner is. Bloody, it will provide much fodder for the Republicans. Yes, but needed to clear the way to the Democratic convention in Denver this August and hopefully, with limited Super- delegate participation. Therefore, I say ‘bring it on’! Fasten your seat-belts! Take cover, and avoid flying ‘missiles’. Thoughts?
VernaSmith
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